Modelling risk



This assignment has been designed to address the following subject learning objectives:

be able to critically interpret the risk management concept;
be able to interpret risk through modelling techniques;
be able to determine the probability, frequency and consequences of a risk event occurring.

Theory (20 marks)
Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position:

‘Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?’
(Hint: Evaluate the measurable component of risk and where it sits on the spectrum)

Workplace application (45 marks)
Identify how your work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available. (Ideally you should the same work case problem from the first assignment, but if it does not lend itself well to this assignment you may choose another problem from your workplace).

Your research requires you to:
– Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms. (5 marks)
Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data – i.e. summarise the patterns and interpret what these patterns are likely indicate about the data to date (10 marks)
– Use one quantitative forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data – for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression (10 marks)
– Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine how these affects might change the future outcomes for your workplace. (10 marks)
– Under what circumstances are qualitative techniques suitable for forecasting? Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes (10 marks)

Communication skills (2.5 marks)
• Presentation of the work including: structure, format, grammar and images

Referencing skills (2.5 marks)
• The application of APA referencing

This assessment builds on the information provided in the first assessment and the skills you have acquired in qualitative and quantitative analysis in the Modules. Having spent the first module working towards a more academic undersztanding of risk we now turn to measuring and then modelling risk.

The first task is a critical analysis of a statement regarding the key concepts of risk and risk analysis. This task is an exercise that is expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support your work. The use of references that provide generic information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.

The second group of tasks relates to risk analysis of the workplace case problem you selected in the first assessment. This assessment may be written in report style and you should use statistical tools such as tables, graphs, and descriptive techniques in your commentary. Marks will be awarded on the calculation of the quantitative information and the application of the results in your portfolio to key risk analysis and risk management concepts.

Report style